Tertytchnaya, Katerina and Lankina, Tomila. 2020. Electoral Protests and Political Attitudes under Electoral Authoritarianism. The Journal of Politics. 82(1), 285-299.
Tertytchnaya, K. 2020. Protests and Voter Defections in Electoral Autocracies: Evidence from Russia. Comparative Political Studies. 53(12), 1926-1956. Summary at LSE Euro Crisis
Tertytchnaya, K., De Vries, C. E. Solaz, H., & Doyle, D. 2018. When the Money Stops: Fluctuations in Financial Remittances and Incumbent Approval. American Political Science Review. 112(4): 758-774.
Tertytchnaya, K., & De Vries, C.E. 2018. The political consequences of self-insurance: Evidence from Central Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Political Behavior. 41:1047.
Does preventive repression dampen or does it bolster mass support for groups that dissent despite obstruction? While a large literature recognises the importance of preventive repression for authoritarian stability, we know very little about its effects on public opinion. To gain traction on this question, I draw on evidence from an original survey experiment and unusually detailed data on authorised and unauthorised protest from Russia. I show that when the authorities engage in preventive repression, such as when they deny protest permits, activists’ ability to generate support is compromised. Preventive repression also conditions the effect of demonstrator and police tactics on public opinion. These effects, however, are contingent on prior beliefs about the authorities and the law. Findings, which provide the first causal test of the mass opinion effects of preventive repression, expand understanding of the consequences and audiences of repression and have implications for studies of authoritarian resilience.
Independent Media Under Pressure: Evidence from Russia (with Tom Paskhalis and Bryn Rosenfeld)
Existing literature recognizes growing threats to press freedom around the world and documents changes in the tools used to stifle independent press. However, few studies investigate how independent media respond to state pressure. Do independent outlets comply, orienting coverage to favor regime interests? Or does repression encourage more negative coverage of the regime instead? To shed light on these questions, we investigate how the abrupt removal of independent outlet TV Rain from Russian television providers influenced its coverage. We find that shortly after TV Rain was dropped by providers, the tone of its political coverage became more positive and its similarity with state-controlled television increased. However, these effects were short-lived. Additional evidence suggests that subscription revenue contributed to the station’s resilience. These findings, from the first causal test of how attacks influence independent media coverage in a nondemocracy, add to our understanding of media manipulation and authoritarian endurance.
’Living as Before’: Repression and social reproduction in Stalin’s Russia (with Tomila Lankina and Alexander Libman)
How does repression influence middle class groups’ social reproduction? While an influential scholarship recognizes their importance in the origin, development, and resilience of democracy, less is known about these groups’ response to episodes of state repression, common throughout history. We explore the effects of Soviet repressions on the survival choices and reproduction of Tzarist middle-class strata, combining unusually detailed regional data on repressions and social composition with novel survey evidence, archival, and memoir sources. We find that repression pushed Imperial educated groups towards identity-enhancing behaviors, pursued in modified forms. In the early Soviet period, educated estates in places with high-intensity repression were more likely to eschew risky behaviors, opt out of politically charged employment paths, and engage in social closure. However, the same groups reverted to habitual pursuits when the risk of political punishment subsided. Findings contribute to the literatures on repression, social resilience, and developmental-political persistence in space.